Bitcoin Growth : Is It Exponential?

A number of theories exist about what has caused the tremendous growth of value of Bitcoin, and various theories exist to project its possible growth into the future. The table below shows you what Bitcoin would have been worth if its value doubled every year (365 days) , ever 500 days and every 600 days.

Which was closest to reality.? In real historical values, Bitcoin went from a value of 7 cents on 8/16/2010 to $26,521.76 on 12/31/2020 . This is closest to a doubling every 600 days, or roughly one and a half years. If you look at the table below, you’ll see that at a doubling every 600 days we would have expected a value at that date of $26,521.76, ust shy of what it really attained.

Hmmm…. 600 days time is just over 18 months. That’s even faster than Moore’s law, which predicted that computer processing power would double in about 2 years at constant cost. We believe the two are related, but that’s a discussion for another time.

Bitcoin Historical and Projected Growth

Have trouble visualizing exponential growth? Welcome to the human race. Our brains are only wired to think in linear fashion. But here’s the result in a graph of Bitcoin since inception to today.

So what if this trend continues? Well, that will mean one Bitcoin in 10 years could be worth between $1 and $5 million dollars. Hard to believe, huh? We do not think that is so farfetched.

We invite you to take another gander at the spreasheet above, and judge for yourself. (You may need to scroll to the values for the year 2030. )

One thing we’re sure about: be prepared for a roller coaster of a ride…